ผลกระทบนโยบายการเงิน การคลัง ต่อการส่งออกของไทย

บทคัดย่อ

The study on the impact of monetary and fiscal policy on Thailand’s agricultural and industrial exports has two objectives. These are to review general situations about Thailands exports and to analyze the impact of monetary and fiscal policy as well as macroeconomic factors on Thai exports. The research is undertaken by applying multiple regression on both agricultural and industrial exports during 1987- 2009. Qualitative analysis is based on in-depth interviews with people involved both in public and private sectors. Multiple regression reveals that factors significantly affecting Thai agricultural exports consist of world economic growth in the year before, the devaluation of Thai baht. Percentage change of foreign direct investment, the reduction of average agricultural wage, changes in government expenditure in the year before, and the reduction in interest rate in the period before. Moreover, financial crisis in 1997 positively affects agricultural exports whereas Hamburger Crisis negatively affects these exports. Thailands exports of industrial products are significantly affected by world economic growth, the devaluation of Thai baht, the high degree of openness, the increase of foreign direct investment, and the increase in government expenditure. The 1997 financial crisis positively affects industrial exports but Hamburger Crisis shows no significant impact. The above multiple regression results are consistent with in-depth interviews which indicate that monetary policy beneficial to export sector is the control of interest rate at the level not so high. As for fiscal policy, export entrepreneurs need government assistance on the low levels of import tariffs for machinery and raw materials. From the above results, it can be recommended that the government may consider implementing expansionary monetary policy in order to ease inflationary pressure. The government should encourage value creation in the production process. This should be accompanied by the building up in technological knowledge and labor productivity. With the influx of foreign investment, the government should raise awareness about the utilization of natural resources in Thailand by foreign investors. This is to ensure the sustainable use of these resources.

คำสำคัญ